The Bruce Report

Lest anyone (especially political junkies like me) rejoice too loudly at the prospect of yet another round of recriminations issuing on the heels of Premier Lord’s decision concerning the fate of the aging behemoth, we should remember that this is the single, toughest leadership test the reigning Tory government has ever faced, or ever will.

Nuclear power is a notoriously polarizing issue – arguably even more so than that other famously contentious tug of war, same-sex marriage. Strong opinions notwithstanding, reasonable people can still agree to disagree about whether Jules and Jim ought to be allowed to march down the aisle together. In the collective mind of the public, however, there is no gray area when it comes to the future of the 25-year-old CANDU-6 reactor currently responsible for more than a third of the province’s energy needs.

To the dismay of veteran politicos and party hacks, therefore, the issue is virtually spin-proof. As a colleague of mind nicely wagged: “It’s like being pregnant. You are or you aren’t. You can’t be a little bit pregnant. . .You can’t like nuclear power, but also think it’s bad for your community. You can’t hate nuclear power, and also think it’s good for your community. . .Not much room for public relations, if you know what I mean.”

In fact, there’s not much room for anything, anymore. The no-nukes forces in New Brunswick are extraordinarily well-informed and armed with sound scientific, economic, financial and environmental arguments for why Point Lepreau should be decommissioned at an estimated cost of $450 million.

Among these include the fact that the province’s Public Utilities Board recommended in September, 2002, that the costs of refurbishment (now estimated to be in the neighbourhood of $1.4 billion) would far outweigh the economic benefits obtained by such a move. Other concerns involve environmental degradation, international security, and the arrested development of green energy sources like wind, solar, tidal and geothermal.

Meanwhile, the pro-Lepreau lobby points out – and not without justification – that dismantling the reactor will introduce an unacceptable financial burden on large and small energy users in the province. Among other things, it will force NB Power to install more costly fossil fuel alternatives precisely because the province has not yet sufficiently diversified the energy grid to provide competitive, locally generated and eco-friendly sources.

After today, of course, all arguments, pro and con, will soon be moot. Whichever side of the fence New Brunswickers choose to plant themselves, the central issue is now exclusively about political leadership.

Provincial ratepayers have waited too long for a definitive answer. They have watched, bemused and annoyed, as the Lord government has stumbled through its on-again, off-again negotiations with the federal liberals. They have stood on the sidelines wondering about the oddly private flirtations with Bruce Power of Ontario and Atomic Energy Canada Ltd., both of which seem ready to shoulder the burden of refurbishing and running Lepreau in return for guaranteed, long-term profits. Mostly, they have fretted about the now-inevitable rising cost of energy, shocked into existence by forces they can’t control and barely comprehend.

The battlefield of public opinion over Point Lepreau is an ugly one. Nothing will change that – not platitudes, not promises, not half-measures disguised as solutions, and certainly not further delays.

If the premier’s talk is straight – if he tells New Brunswickers exactly what they can expect, what they shouldn’t expect, and why he believes his decision makes sense in the current environment – some will applaud him and others will revile him. But, at least, he will have passed a crucial test of political leadership.

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