In the four decades since “Limits to Growth” hit the bookstands, legions of scientists have spent several hundred happy hours dismissing, defusing and debunking its apocalyptic predictions about the fate of the earth and civilization’s inevitable collapse.
As recently as this year, a commentary in the Globe and Mail reported on a “retrospective analysis” by Charles Kenny, a senior fellow with the Washington-based Centre for Global Development, who declares that industrial output is “nowhere near” the study’s “doomsday scenario.”
On the contrary, he says, the planet’s resources will persist because “the world economy is becoming increasingly lightweight. Industries consume fewer mineral resources for each dollar of output. As much as two-thirds of global economic activity consists of outputs that don’t. . .weigh anything at all – things such as entertainment, education, finance and health care.”
The commentator, himself, observed, “This shift toward a lightweight economy parallels the rise of service industries – from a 53-per-cent share of the global economy in 1970 to a 71-per-cent share in 2010.”
Yet, a new analysis suggests that the authors of that 1972 work, published at the zenith of white, liberal guilt, were chillingly close to the mark.
According to an item in a recent edition of Smithsonian magazine, “Australian physicist Graham Turner compared real-world data from 1970 to 2000 with the business-as-usual scenario (and) found the predictions nearly matched the facts. ‘There is a very clear warning bell being rung here,’ he says. ‘We are not on a sustainable trajectory.’”
In fact, Turner reports that each and every trend line – food per capita, services per capita, global pollution, remaining non-renewable resources, population, and industrial output per capita – is tracking as expected towards a crest, followed almost immediately by a fall sometime between 2020 and 2030.
How much verisimilitude we choose to lend these observations depends entirely on how much faith we have in the business of prognostication. After all, the world is not a simple organism whose behaviour often, or even ever, conforms to our ideas about cause and effect; a lot can happen in the span of ten years.
Still, one detects the reemergence of a familiar theme in the urgent, and perennially provocative, conversation about the future of the planet – one that insists the current pace of economic growth is unsustainable and, as there’s nothing we can do about it, we’d better get used to a slower lifestyle.
That, at least, appears to be the central argument of Jeff Rubin’s new book, “The End of Growth”. He’s the former chief economist at CIBC World Markets who penned “Why Your World Is About To Get A Whole Lot Smaller” a few years back. This new work is his follow-up.
In a Globe and Mail blog post, Rubin writes that while the planet will never run out of oil and gas, humanity will exhaust recoverable reserves of the cheap stuff. That spells the end of growth as we know it.
“The relationship is straightforward,” he says. “Economic growth is a function of energy consumption. With national economies around the world once again forced to pay more than $100 (U.S.) for every barrel of oil consumed, a critical question must be asked – what happens when the world’s most important source of energy becomes unaffordable?”
A run on shoe leather, perhaps? Bicycles for everyone?
Not quite, but Rubin doesn’t think a low-growth, or even no-growth, world shouldn’t frighten anyone. He points out that some of the happiest people are those who take things in their decelerating stride.
Naturally, he, like the “Limits to Growth” gang before him, is not without his critics. Still, he remains adamant, dismissing Canada’s present preoccupation with Alberta oil, for example, as “insignificant”.
Indeed, he says in a recent Financial Post interview, “I don’t care if there are billions of barrels in Eagle Ford, Bakken, the tar sands, the Brazilian sub-salt, the Arctic deepwater, Orinoco. That’s not really the point. If the prices needed to get that oil out of the ground are triple-digit prices, it’s as if those resources don’t exist because the economy won’t be able to afford to burn it.”
All of which may only prove that one man’s apocalypse is another’s rapture.
Alec Bruce is a Moncton-based writer on politics, economics and current affairs. Check out his other blog here at Atlantic Business Magazine (ABMOnline): The Uneasy Chair.